A path analysis on the impact of population increase on rice field conversion

Rice field conversion is a transformation of rice field function from rice production to other uses. The accumulation of the case will threaten Indonesian food security in the future if early anticipation is not prepared. The objectives of this research were to figure out the amount of rice field conversion and to identify a path of the impact of population increase on the rice field conversion in Padang city, Indonesia. This research was conducted in Padang city from July to September 2017. Data was collected from Statistics of Padang city and official documents of Padang city from 2006 to 2017. Variables are the number of population, per capita income, land for settlement, length of road constructed, price of rice, and area of rice field. The methods of analysis were trend analysis and path analysis using IBM SPSS 23 and Smart PLS 3 softwares. The result showed that there was about 31.9 ha/year of rice field converted to other uses in Padang city within the last ten years. The population increase cause the indirect impact on the rice field conversion. The impact of population increase on the rice field conversion passes through per capita income and land for settlement as mediating factors.